It does seem like if I was China, this would be the perfect time to make a big geopolitical move: EU and Russia tied up with Ukraine and Iran, US & Gulf allies now stuck in a war zone, US showing aging tech with large exposure to new drone warfare.
This seems likely the conflict that forces the US into an immediate course correction in military makeup, or suffer large and expensive mass casualties on the battlefield.
What happened to Battleships after Aircraft Carriers entered the picture, comes to mind.
angry_octet 23 minutes ago [-]
Don't interrupt your enemy when they are busy making mistakes.
Iran is shaping up to be a quagmire worse than Afghanistan or Iraq. Even if Trump pulls back from the brink, the GCC economies are significantly damaged, Iran will extort a massive wergild, and European and Asian economies will suffer another energy shock. China is relatively unscathed.
cyanydeez 5 minutes ago [-]
Iran is too close to china to make any real issue. USA can stop shooting themselves in the feet at any time and redirect to Taiwan.
If China wanted USA tied up, theyd get south america or cuba problems, forces away from China.
zugi 42 minutes ago [-]
It would be, unless China isn't yet militarily ready.
Also if China's Taiwan plan includes using surrogates like Iran to cause simultaneous trouble, then reducing Iran's capability asynchronously eliminates one US worry during a Taiwan scenario.
pRusya 27 minutes ago [-]
The US has stepped into a huge pile of shit in this round. And instead of getting out fast, they just want to jump dive into it.
Some American people don't know that US misfortunes are celebrated elsewhere. 911 became a holiday in some regions. And if American empire falls down, I feel like at least half of the world gonna celebrate that.
tim-tday 3 hours ago [-]
So like exactly as analysts said would happen in the event of an invasion of Iran?
Terr_ 3 hours ago [-]
The situation makes more sense when you realize the actual geopolitical needs of America simply aren't part of the equation. Trump and his Republican enablers only care about gambling for a pre-midterm "victory" and salving the presidential ego.
If they cared about taxpayer dollars or the US' long-term strategic position, we wouldn't be in this mess. There wouldn't be an illegal/unconstitutional war fueling consequences that everyone (else) saw coming.
If you think that's bad, look at the total cost of under-defended systems lost so far (measured in billions, in the neighborhood of several and possibly more) and at the much bloodier potential of pointless deaths and humiliation than either the Bay of Pigs or Vietnam for an unnecessary ground invasion after an unnecessary air and sea war. The US MIC is primarily optimized by corporate greed and institutional inertia to fight a symmetric war from 1995. Send the Flag Code-violating action Ken doll and the sundowning real estate guy home along with troops in theater.. or lint traps stuffing and toilet cloggings will happen.
srean 3 hours ago [-]
I am now seeing quite a few videos of F15s trying to shoot down drones. That seems an odd choice.
Was this happening before or is it a new trend ? Is it to save on surface to air interceptors ?
hkpack 2 minutes ago [-]
[delayed]
angry_octet 8 minutes ago [-]
This is indeed to save on more expensive missiles. A very cheap missile, the APKWS, is augmented with a cheap laser guidance kit to make the APKWS II, a cheap short range air-to-air missile.
APKWS II isn't useful for counter-manoeuvring targets like fighter jets, but it is perfect for one way drones. The Hydra 70 rocket it is build from doesn't have the range by itself to protect a wide area, but an F-15E can carry a number of 7-rocket pods, and has the speed to chase down drones and cruise missiles over a wide area, like a hummingbird zipping between flowers. Depending on loadout restrictions due to fuel tanks, an F-15E could employ 42 APKWS II and a mix of short range (AIM-9X) and medium range (AMRAAM).
All of this requires airborne cueing, which is why the loss of the E3 Sentry is so serious.
Arguably this has been happening since the Cold War, as aircraft-launched missiles back then were designed to take out incoming cruise missiles. But in principle using something like an F-15 firing something like an AIM-120 is cheaper than using a Patriot, because the Patriot missile has to include a huge booster stage, a disposable radar, etc, while those can all be integrated into the plane instead in the case of an AMRAAM. In practice of course whether or not it is cheaper is dependent on the cost per flight hour of the plane and how many AMRAAMS you're making versus how many Patriot interceptors you're building. In that regard though, this _is_ new, because there's a fairly recently introduced missile called Advanced Precision Kill Weapon System (APKWS) that puts a relatively cheap seeker head onto a cheap otherwise-unguided rocket (I'm pretty sure the cost of an APKWS seeker + rocket is less than $50k), and those are cheap enough that you can send up an F-15 with hardpoints full of them and not worry nearly as much about letting loose several million-dollar missiles.
Smoosh 41 minutes ago [-]
“When I took over our military, we didn’t have ammunition,” Trump said Monday. “I was told by a top general – maybe the top of them all – ‘Sir, I’m sorry. Sir, we don’t have ammunition.’ I said, ‘I’ll never let another president have that happen to him or her.’ We didn’t have ammunition.”
abdelhousni 3 hours ago [-]
Operation Epstein fury doesn't bode well for the deranged White House occupant...
Imustaskforhelp 1 hours ago [-]
I know that wars are going on and I guess I have talked about this war in particular fair-share on it.
But when all of the Epstein thing happened, I genuinely thought that US media which moved the headlines faster than I can think about the issues for, would actually slow down given the severity and we as a society could think about it.
And then the US Administration did these wars with less discussion of Epstein files and their implications.
I used to see people raise these points within the start of war but as this war is getting streched more and more, it seems that the news cycle may've forgotten a bit about the files
A lot of my assumptions on the world and how it operates feel challenged by this pace of going from epstein to wars, Reading 1984, it feels like using war as a distraction so that nobody digs in too deep but everyone feels panic and fear so that they are easily controllable.
I hope that accountability can take place within the context of epstein files. Some of it is still redacted even unconstituionally.
(I kind of wish to do some data analysis checking the frequency of Epstein files related posts in Hackernews (for example) after the Iran war actually now [maybe-later, maybe this will also be one of the ideas which I might not implement right now] but I will try to share if I find any interesting results and perhaps someone who is also interested can do that as anecdotally, I feel like I see almost zero mentions of Epstein now from Media or very little aside from some comments like the GP's comment which mentioned Epstein in saying Epstein-fury.)
curt15 1 hours ago [-]
> But when all of the Epstein thing happened, I genuinely thought that US media which moved the headlines faster than I can think about the issues for, would actually slow down given the severity and we as a society could think about it.
Not to worry since the public face of the Epstein files coverup is back in the news.
thisislife2 2 hours ago [-]
They can afford to. People are forgetting that unlike Russia, the US isn't in a wartime economy mode. Iran isn't a threat to world's most powerful military. And it's not as if Iran is suddenly going to launch a ground invasion against all its neighbours (which would be disaster for it). It too is seeking a stalemate end to the war. Iran's military has been crippled. The only problem is that as the Trump administration has declared victory, it's still trying to figure out what that "victory" is. And how to deal with Netanyahu's self-destructive tantrum that dragged the US into this mess in the first place.
nitwit005 2 hours ago [-]
The issue is that capability being gone without any ammo. As the article mentions:
> Again, the Tomahawk would be a primary weapon system used in a conflict with China, where the target sets can range into the tens of thousands, and the country’s anti-access umbrella will require the use of standoff munitions like none other in history.
Dig1t 2 hours ago [-]
>Netanyahu's self-destructive tantrum that dragged the US into this mess in the first place.
Trump was bought by the Israel lobby long ago. Miriam Adelson, Sheldon Adelson, Larry Ellison and others gave him hundreds of millions to ensure he’d start this war while he was still campaigning.
Rendered at 00:18:34 GMT+0000 (UTC) with Wasmer Edge.
This seems likely the conflict that forces the US into an immediate course correction in military makeup, or suffer large and expensive mass casualties on the battlefield.
What happened to Battleships after Aircraft Carriers entered the picture, comes to mind.
Iran is shaping up to be a quagmire worse than Afghanistan or Iraq. Even if Trump pulls back from the brink, the GCC economies are significantly damaged, Iran will extort a massive wergild, and European and Asian economies will suffer another energy shock. China is relatively unscathed.
If China wanted USA tied up, theyd get south america or cuba problems, forces away from China.
Also if China's Taiwan plan includes using surrogates like Iran to cause simultaneous trouble, then reducing Iran's capability asynchronously eliminates one US worry during a Taiwan scenario.
Some American people don't know that US misfortunes are celebrated elsewhere. 911 became a holiday in some regions. And if American empire falls down, I feel like at least half of the world gonna celebrate that.
If they cared about taxpayer dollars or the US' long-term strategic position, we wouldn't be in this mess. There wouldn't be an illegal/unconstitutional war fueling consequences that everyone (else) saw coming.
Was this happening before or is it a new trend ? Is it to save on surface to air interceptors ?
APKWS II isn't useful for counter-manoeuvring targets like fighter jets, but it is perfect for one way drones. The Hydra 70 rocket it is build from doesn't have the range by itself to protect a wide area, but an F-15E can carry a number of 7-rocket pods, and has the speed to chase down drones and cruise missiles over a wide area, like a hummingbird zipping between flowers. Depending on loadout restrictions due to fuel tanks, an F-15E could employ 42 APKWS II and a mix of short range (AIM-9X) and medium range (AMRAAM).
All of this requires airborne cueing, which is why the loss of the E3 Sentry is so serious.
https://www.twz.com/air/f-15e-spotted-packing-big-laser-guid...
But when all of the Epstein thing happened, I genuinely thought that US media which moved the headlines faster than I can think about the issues for, would actually slow down given the severity and we as a society could think about it.
And then the US Administration did these wars with less discussion of Epstein files and their implications.
I used to see people raise these points within the start of war but as this war is getting streched more and more, it seems that the news cycle may've forgotten a bit about the files
A lot of my assumptions on the world and how it operates feel challenged by this pace of going from epstein to wars, Reading 1984, it feels like using war as a distraction so that nobody digs in too deep but everyone feels panic and fear so that they are easily controllable.
I hope that accountability can take place within the context of epstein files. Some of it is still redacted even unconstituionally.
(I kind of wish to do some data analysis checking the frequency of Epstein files related posts in Hackernews (for example) after the Iran war actually now [maybe-later, maybe this will also be one of the ideas which I might not implement right now] but I will try to share if I find any interesting results and perhaps someone who is also interested can do that as anecdotally, I feel like I see almost zero mentions of Epstein now from Media or very little aside from some comments like the GP's comment which mentioned Epstein in saying Epstein-fury.)
Not to worry since the public face of the Epstein files coverup is back in the news.
> Again, the Tomahawk would be a primary weapon system used in a conflict with China, where the target sets can range into the tens of thousands, and the country’s anti-access umbrella will require the use of standoff munitions like none other in history.
Trump was bought by the Israel lobby long ago. Miriam Adelson, Sheldon Adelson, Larry Ellison and others gave him hundreds of millions to ensure he’d start this war while he was still campaigning.